Allright, here we go - the best weekend in football, and some really great matchups too, but first, let's look at last week. Gazoom split games, with the Giants easily handling favored Tampa Bay, and as reality finally caught up with the Redskins in Seattle. The Jags should have covered too, as they had the Steelers all but subdued, then decided to see if maybe they were so good that they could win even if they senselessly abandoned the run. As for the Titans, a key play in that game was the Chris Brown fumble in the second quarter, which happened deep in San Diego territory and left Tennessee empty-handed after a long, hard-earned drive. Plus, if they just make that stupid short field goal...
But of course, such is the nature of the playoffs. What-ifs, couldas, wouldas, if onlys...
Never one to brood over the past, Gazoom now turns to the future, and the pages of history waiting to be written this weekend. The first interesting feature of this week's lines is that they are so high. Despite having quality oppenents across the board, all of this week's hosts are favored by a touchdown or more. What gives? History tells us that home teams in this round win rougly 78% of the time, but doesn't it also tell us that teams tend to play it close to the vest in the playoffs? At this point, even the universally-despised, stat-whore Patriots should be more concerned with securing wins than running up the score. Besides, 78% means that the visitors are winning 22% of the time. Ipso facto, if four games are being played, chances are one of those four will result in a road team win. Furthermore, with point spreads so high, chances are also high that not only will one road team win outright, but that at least one other roadie will play in a relatively close game. That said, these games are all really tough to pick, and should all be lots of fun to watch. So without any further ado, awaaay we go...
Seattle(+8) @ Green Bay Matt Hasselbeck wants the ball, and he's gonna take it in for the score. Really, this time he means it. No, seriously. He and Holmgren have been waiting 4 years for redemption at Lambeau, and anyone who watched Seattle's front seven tearing up the Redskins' line last week knows Favre had better be on his game early, or the Pack could be in a lot of trouble. You have to figure old-man Favre didn't play this well all year just to go one & out in the playoffs. He knows this team has a much better shot at going to the Super Bowl than he ever expected to get at this point in his career, and while he's still a threat to serve up a few questionable balls, I'd be surprised to not see him also play really well in spots. But the guy he's pitching against is no longer some wide-eyed kid, and seasoned vet Matt Hasselbeck will be a really tough out, especially if Shawn Alexander suddenly remembers how to play football. This game could come down to which of Holmgren's disciples makes fewer mistakes, and to who gets a big break late in the game.
Jacksonville(+13) @ New England The Patriots have routinely covered when favored by 17 or fewer - but not against the Colts & Giants - both balanced units that run well and play sound defense, ala Jacksonville. Indy & New York both had the Pats on the ropes late before letting Randy Moss run deep, and just in case there are still some cornerbacks out there who haven't yet gotten the memo; only let Randy Moss run alone down the sideline if you're absolutely sure that it's a good point in the game for you to lose. Everyone loves these Jags, but even if they're able to contain Moss, pound the rock, limit their mistakes, get big special teams play, and get a few good calls from the refs, they still can't win this game. And deep down, they know it. New England is just too good, too experienced, and they are rested, while Jacksonville is all banged up. Plus, after his 4th quarter play-calling against Pittsburgh, if it comes down to a battle of coaching wits, Del Rio could find himself unarmed against Belichek. They may land some big body blows early, but sooner or later in this one, the Jags simply accept their fate and roll over.
San Diego(+9) @ Indianapolis It took a couple of key breaks and hard knocks for the Chargers to escape last week's game and get to the same point Marty Schottenheimer took them in '06 - the Divisional Round, where last year they lost at home to the Pats. Now they travel to Indy, with Harrison likely and Antonio Gates hobbled 'with a toe'. The Colts defend the run as well as anyone still playing, and of course, have a huge advantage in the passing game. They are a veteran unit that won't get rattled, while the Chargers are still likely to start fighting among themselves if things don't go well. The Chargers are talented, but a bit punk-ish, and may need to take some notes on character and teamwork from guys like Manning and Harrison. Throw in Dungy over Turner, home-field advantage and rest, and the defending champs should advance to the AFC title game pretty easily.
NY Giants(+7.5) @ Dallas As Keith Jackson might say, these two teams just plain don't like each other. Hard to believe this is the first time these two storied franchises have ever met in the playoffs, and it ought to be a good one. Everyone says its hard to beat a team 3 times in one year, but teams are 11-6 when going for the sweep since the merger. Still, lots of folks are pretty high on the Giants right now, and most of Eli's erstwhile detractors are suddenly singing his praises, though Gazoom's been noting his improved play and demeanor all season. With all the talk about "Romicca's" vacation, and whether or not T.O. plays, Dallas still gets an edge in the passing game. All told, this game will likely come down to defense, and while the Giants led the league in sacks, the Cowboys were better in almost every other statistical category. Who will pressure the passer more? Whose receivers will drop fewer passes? Will Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs break the record for most defensive backs frightened? So far, the Cowboys have had all the answers twice, and maybe its their maulilng o-line that ultimately makes the difference. Home-field, two weeks of rest, better coaching, and overall talent give the 'Boys the win, but grit and loathing keep it uncomfortably close. Get yer popcorn ready!
And for Gazoom's Special Plays:
My "Janet Jones Power Play" is due for a payoff, and this week's best bet is the Seahawks(+8), who go down Holmgren Way to give Favre all he wants and then some.
And in my "Olson Twins Double-Team Teaser", take the over for Seahawks-Packers(41.5), which promises to be a duel, along with the Colts(-9) who show the Chargers just how far behind the league's elite they still are.
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